BEIJING, Jan. 31  -- China's trade surplus will rise by six percent to 189 billion U.S. dollars in 2007, according to a prediction by a government think tank.

The growth rate is a huge drop from last year's growth, which took the trade surplus in 2006 to 177.5 billion U.S. dollars, from around 100 billion dollars in 2005.

According to a report by the Academy of Macroeconomic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's total exports will hit 1.147 trillion dollars, up 18 percent on last year, compared with the growth rate of 27.2 percent in 2006.

The decrease in exports can be attributed to a general slowdown of the global economy and the country's tax reforms, said the report.

Imports are forecast to rise 20 percent - the same growth rate as last year - to 958 billion U.S. dollars.

The report, which was compiled last month, said the growth rate of China's economy would slow to less than 10 percent in 2007, after four years of double-digit growth.

However, Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the NDRC who wrote the report, said, "The prediction was made before the government revised the final GDP growth figure to 10.7 percent. Therefore, we can only say the economy growth in 2007 will be around 10 percent,not specifically below," he said.

The report also warned against a sharp or one-off appreciation of the Renminbi, saying that such a measure would harm domestic industries and affect financial stability.

Fixed assets investment, one of the economic growth engines, will grow by 22 percent to 13.5 trillion yuan (1.69 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2007, the report predicted.

The volume of retail sales will hit 9.15 trillion yuan in 2007,up around 13 percent. The consumer price index (CPI), a major inflation indicator, will increase by 1.5 to 2 percent this year.